Model vs. market, every NBA game

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HoopEdge gives every NBA game a model win chance and puts it next to live DraftKings, Kalshi and Polymarket prices. You see where the model and the market disagree before tip-off.

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Every saved pick graded

7:10 PM ET · Fri, Nov 6Example

WASWashington Wizards 4-4

ATLAtlanta Hawks 5-4

11 injuriesEPM impact per player

HoopEdge win chance

Locked · free pick or subscription

DraftKings

Wizards

ML
Spread
Odds: +231; +7.5; -104

Hawks

ML
Spread
Odds: -283; -7.5; -116

Total
Over
Under: 228.5; -108; -112

Prediction markets · YES / NO asks

Kalshi
Team	Yes	No
Wizards	28¢	73¢
Hawks	73¢	28¢

Polymarket
Team	Yes	No
Wizards	28¢	73¢
Hawks	73¢	28¢

An example card with real prices captured the morning of Nov 6, 2026. Prices move until tip-off.

3 markets, 1 card DraftKings, Kalshi and Polymarket side by side Every game, every night Model win chance, margin and cover chance Injuries built in Who's out, with each player's impact rating Picks on the record Time, price and result saved for every pick

Two ways to use it

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If you track every number

Find the gap between the model and the price.

Edge against the market. Model win chance next to the price, with a fee-adjusted edge on each Kalshi contract.
Three books on one card. DraftKings moneyline, spread and total beside Kalshi and Polymarket asks that update live, during games too.
Price when called vs. price at tip. Every saved pick keeps both, so you can see if the market moved toward it. Subscribers also see each revision.
Results by edge size. History splits wins and losses by edge size for moneyline and spread picks.
Kelly sizing built into the bet slip.

Open the full history

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A free pick on days the model is confident, chosen from tonight's games. No account needed.
The Slate Report. A plain-English read on every game, with one bet per game and the reason for it.
Practice bets with credits, included with Weekly or the Season Pass. No real money. Bets settle on their own after the final.
Leaderboard and public ledgers. See what other players picked and climb the weekly rankings.
Injury news on every card, so you know who's sitting before you pick.

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How a pick is made

Model first. Then the market.

Each game goes through the same four steps, every night.

The model rates the game

Win chance, projected margin and cover chance on the spread, for every game on the slate.

We line it up with the market

DraftKings, Kalshi and Polymarket prices go on the same card. The gap between model and price, after Kalshi fees, is the edge.

We check the matchup

Injuries come with each missing player's impact rating (EPM), so you can see how much a scratch matters.

The pick is saved and graded

Time-stamped with its price, updated if news moves it, and settled after the final buzzer.

What an edge looks likeExample numbers

The market prices a team to win 54% of the time The model says 61%, a 7-point gap. After Kalshi's fee of about 1.7¢, the edge is 5.3 points.

Track record

Every pick goes on the record. Wins and losses.

History keeps each saved pick with the time we made it, the price then, the price at tip-off, and the result. Subscribers also see every revision.

Date	Game	Pick	Called at (ET)	Price then	Price at tip	Edge	Result
Nov 5	MIA @ GSW	NO · Golden State wins by over 7.5 Spread	1:29 PM	52¢	63¢	6.4%	Loss
Nov 4	POR @ PHX	YES · Portland wins Win/loss	8:12 PM	57¢	58¢	8.0%	Win
Nov 4	IND @ MEM	YES · Memphis wins Win/loss	7:41 PM	68¢	68¢	10.3%	Loss
Nov 4	CLE @ OKC	YES · Oklahoma City wins by over 3.5 Spread	6:24 PM	51¢	49¢	-2.4%	Win
Nov 4	UTA @ NOP	YES · New Orleans wins Win/loss	6:02 PM	65¢	65¢	5.5%	Win
Nov 4	CHI @ NYK	NO · New York wins by over 12.5 Spread	5:31 PM	53¢	54¢	4.5%	Loss

Six recent saved picks, Nov 4–5, 2026.

Record54–47

Accuracy53.5%

Last 30 days of saved picks, as of Nov 6, 2026. See History for the current record.

See all saved picks

Play along

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Weekly and Season Pass members get credits for practice bets on tonight's real lines. Bets settle on their own, and your record shows up on the leaderboard.

Bet slip

Example

Hawks -7.5Spread · DraftKings price -116 · WAS @ ATL

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To win431 credits

Kelly suggestionShown with the model's chance

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Leaderboard

Sample names

1	Player A	+4,210
2	Player B	+3,880
3	Player C	+2,945
?	Your name here	Start tonight

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The board tonight

Where the model and the market split

Injury watch

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Why does HoopEdge give Boston a 64% win probability?

Answers will point to the model, the market price and the injury report behind them.

ModelMarketInjuries

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Questions

Before you tip off.

Is HoopEdge a sportsbook?

No. HoopEdge doesn't take bets. It shows predictions next to DraftKings, Kalshi and Polymarket prices so you can compare them. Practice bets use credits, not money.

What do I get for free?

One free pick on days the model gives a team at least a 65% win chance, with no account needed. Some days no game reaches that bar. A free account may also unlock an extra daily pick reveal.

Where do the prices come from?

DraftKings for moneyline, spread and total. Kalshi and Polymarket for YES and NO contract prices, which update live.

How do I know the picks are any good?

Check History. Every saved pick is there with its price and result, wins and losses, and you can break the record down by edge size.

What are credits?

Practice money for paper bets. Weekly and the Season Pass include them, and packs add more. They don't expire, and you can't cash them out or transfer them.

Who can use HoopEdge?

Anyone 17 or older.

Is there an app?

iPhone and Android apps are coming soon. The website works on your phone today.

Does the Season Pass renew?

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